# PMPS — Probability Rails

PMPS turns predictions into programmable financial primitives. Outcome-based incentives, dynamic pricing, and risk routing are exposed as a single API surface that settles against real market probability.

## Pages

- [Financial primitives](https://pmps.ai/primitives)
- [The probability rail](https://pmps.ai/rail)
- [Markets](https://pmps.ai/markets)
- [Request API access](https://pmps.ai/access)

## The primitives

### Outcome-based incentives

Price a reward against the probability of the outcome it is meant to move. Payout resolves when the market resolves, not when a campaign ends.

Endpoint: `POST /v1/incentives`

### Dynamic pricing

Attach a live probability to a price surface. Margin moves with the forecast, and every move carries the interval it was priced under.

Endpoint: `GET /v1/curves/:id`

### Risk routing

Send exposure to the counterparty that prices it best. The rail holds the book, matches, and settles against the resolved probability.

Endpoint: `POST /v1/routes`

## The rail

Four addressable stages connect a signal to a settled contract:

1. **Signal intake** — Prediction markets, internal telemetry, and counterparty quotes are normalised into one probability schema.
2. **Calibration** — Every incoming probability is scored against its own resolution history before it is allowed on the rail.
3. **Routing** — Exposure is matched to the counterparty with the best price at the requested interval, or held on book.
4. **Settlement** — Contracts resolve against the published probability of record, with the full calibration trail attached.

## Markets

- **Commerce** — Retention spend priced against churn probability per cohort.
- **Capital markets** — Event exposure routed to the desk that prices it best.
- **Insurance** — Parametric cover written directly on a calibrated probability.
- **Logistics** — Delay probability priced into freight terms at booking.

All figures shown on the website are illustrative sandbox values.

## Access

Sandbox keys are issued within two business days. Production access follows a counterparty review. No sales call is required to read the documentation.

Contact: [brand@pmps.ai](mailto:brand@pmps.ai)